Thursday, August 30, 2012

Waiver Wire Wednesday! Plus - The Bench of the Cause

Nothing says, "I'm not confident that I'll be able to continue coming up with interesting post topics!" quite like a running weekly gimmick. With that said, I give you Waiver Wire Wednesday, where I will discuss how I attempt to pan for fantasy gold in the neverending river of fantasy talent known as the Draft and Draught waiver wire!

But first, allow me to introduce you to the players most likely to get axed in favor of emerging stars as the season moves along:

Shonn Greene, RB: Somehow, no matter what I do, I seem to get saddled with Greene. He has great opportunity value, as he is the clear-cut number 1 option on a run-first team. Moreover, there is some upside in Tim Tebow's presence on the roster. Rushing quarterbacks tend to increase a running back's value, and Tebow made Willis McGahee a very productive fantasy back last year. Now for the bad news: Shonn Greene might not be very good at football, and the Jets may not be, either. If those things are true, it might not matter how much opportunity Greene gets. That being said, he makes a viable flex option and a decent bye week fill in, if nothing else.

CJ Spiller, RB: Spiller found himself stuck behind Fred Jackson on the Buffalo depth chart for the first half of last season. When FJax got hurt, though, Spiller showed a lot of promise as an every-down back. Once again, though, he is on the wrong end of a time-share, and will likely only have real value if Jackson's injury keeps him from being fully productive.

Mark Ingram, RB: Ingram is probably the goal line back for the Saints. Moreover, the Saints did spend a high draft pick on him, once upon a time, and they will want to get value out of that pick. Unfortunately, the backfield is a bit cluttered in New Orleans, and it's entirely possible Ingram isn't very good. He is more of a lottery ticket than anything else - I'm betting that there's a chance he finds his collegiate form at some point.

DeAngelo Williams, RB: D-Will was a superstar not terribly long ago, and though he is getting older, the Panthers did give him a new contract. He will split time with Jonathan Stewart this season (as per always...), but Stewart went down in the preseason with a slight ankle injury. I'm not convinced that Williams is entirely cooked, and with Stewart out, Williams may have an opportunity to re-establish himself as a quality fantasy starter. Maybe.

Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR: Apart from being named after a Roman senator, Heyward-Bey has finally found himself with a decent opportunity to be a solid fantasy starter. His quarterback, Carson Palmer, was pretty good during the second half of last year, and the other Oakland wide receiver, Denarius Moore (Oakland apparently has a Roman senator thing), will help spread the defense and remove coverage from DHB. Heyward-Bey was inconsistent last season, but he finished strong. I like him as a solid sleeper for this year.

Lance Moore, WR: Fun fact - For the past two seasons, Moore has led all Saints wide receivers in touchdowns. What more could I want from a bench wide receiver?

Randall Cobb, WR: Cobb is a wide receiver on one of the most prolific passing offenses in NFL history. So what if he's way down their depth chart? One injury to a starter, and Randall Cobb will have some serious value. He was my last positional pick in my draft (I grabbed my defense and kicker in the final two rounds), so I like his chances as a simple roll of the dice.

This brings us to Waiver Wire Wednesday! As our draft happened just days ago, I did not plan on dropping anyone this week. I did, however, open up a roster slot by moving Ryan Mathews into one of my two Injured Reserve slots. With that slot, I set my waiver priority on Rashad Jennings, the backup running back for Jacksonville, in the hopes that Maurice Jones-Drew never signs a contract this season. Alas, I did not get my first choice, so I settled on wide receiver Kendall Wright, a "lightning-quick playmaker who is deadly with the ball in his hands." Hey, ESPN.com said it, so it must be true! We shall see.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Draft and Draught Films Presents: 2008

On the frozen tundras of Every Field, 32 NFL franchises competed to amass as many yards and touchdowns as they possibly could. Their motives remained unclear, but what was clear was that, for the franchises of the Draft and Draught League(DDL), these statistics would propel one lucky squad into fantasy football history.

Fresh off of a respectable but disappointing runner-up finish, The Laserwolves became the Secaucus Mighty Phragmites and looked to return to glory. They turned to superstar quarterback Tom Brady to lead them, as well as the talented running back, Steven Jackson. Little did they know that disaster was about to befall the proud franchise.

Just eleven minutes into the season, Tom Brady's leg was shattered by a vicious illegal blow from Bernard "The Assassin" Pollard. With him could have gone the hopes and dreams of the city of Secaucus, but like the determined swamp grass for which they were named, the Mighty Phragmites plugged the hole and soldiered on.

They were pushed onward by rookie running back sensation Matt Forte, who had a singular talent for scrounging a double digit weekly score even when the odds seemed stacked against him. A midseason trade for wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald also helped the Phragmites, and by season's end they were 7-6, and 3rd overall in total points scored.

The Phragmites won their opening round playoff game, and faced the number one seed Jolly Green Giants in a hotly contested semifinal.  However, it was not to be for the fearless Phragmites of Secaucus, as poor play from fill in quarterback Jay Cutler and recent acquisition Fitzgerald led to their demise. The quest for a title would have to wait, but the franchise learned that, no matter the odds, they would never quit, and they would always do their best.

The Jolly Green Giants fell to the Brooklyn Maelstrom in the final, and Brooklyn became the second franchise to lift the Draft and Draught Championship Cup.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Playing For The Cause

Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce the 2012 starting roster for the Rich Liberal Trendy Cause!

First, at quarterback, hailing from New England...Tom Brady! Fresh off an incredibly disappointing Super Bowl defeat at the hands of the New York Giants ...again..., Brady is the absolute most valuable player on the Cause. He will have a new weapon on offense, deep threat wide receiver Brandon Lloyd, and he will have had a full off-season to help tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski to improve on already-otherworldly numbers. I expect Brady to make a run at 400 fantasy points this season, and I would be surprised to see him finish outside the top-3 at the position.

Next, at Running Back #1, from San Diego, Ryan Mathews! Mathews begins the season on the injury report after breaking his collarbone early in the season, but the good news is that this is a fully recoverable injury and he should be back by Week 2, and possibly even for the opener. The better news is that, for several stretches last season, he was one of the best running backs in the business, and even despite missing a couple games he finished 9th in points at the position. Mathews is an injury risk, but one I am willing to take. Unlike many running backs this year, Mathews is the clear-cut starter on his team and has talent to match.

At Running Back #2, starting for Cincinatti this year, The Law Firm, BenJarvis Green-Ellis! Apart from having a simply wonderful nickname, The Law Firm carved out fantasy value as a part-time player for New England last year, and now he finds himself as the starter for Cincy. Interesting stat on The Law Firm - he has never fumbled the ball in his career. I don't expect him to be the best player in the league, but he will be a solid, reliable RB2.

Next, the Wide Receivers, from New York, Hakeem Nicks, and from Pittsburgh, Antonio Brown! My wide receiver pairing has loads of talent and they both possess top-10 level upside. Nicks is a bit fragile, but he tends to play through injuries and he has enough of a relationship with Eli Manning that he doesn't need practice reps to build his timing. Antonio Brown was a revelation last year in Pittsburgh - I believe he is going to be the best wide out on the team, despite Mike Wallace's presence on the roster. He has speed to burn, he has soft hands, and he runs great routes - in short, he has everything a good quarterback could want. And his signal caller, Big Ben, is a good quarterback.

At the Flex position, from Baltimore, wide receiver Torrey Smith! Torrey Smith is fast. Like, really fast. As Anquan Boldin gets older, he will shoulder more and more of the responsibility at wide receiver in Baltimore. Also, his quarterback, Joe Flacco, had an uncharacteristically atrocious conversion percentage last season on deep passes, Smith's specialty. If Flacco's numbers improve to be more in line with his career stats, Torrey Smith will challenge for a top 15 wide receiver spot this season. I like his upside.

At Tight End, hailing from New Orleans, Jimmy Graham! Another integral piece of the puzzle, Graham was the 2nd best tight end last season, behind only the Gronk. I believe that, given the plethora of options available in New England and the loss of a couple wide receivers in New Orleans, Gronkowski's value will regress a bit, while Graham's might actually increase. Even if he doesn't improve on last year, Graham will give us a huge positional advantage at tight end over almost every other franchise.

And for the Defense/ Special Teams, the Philadelphia Eagles! I hate the Birds from Philly, but they have a ball-hawking, turn-over oriented scheme, which is exactly what I want out of a fantasy defense. I expect to be rather fast and loose with my defense over the season, and I plan to look for favorable waiver wire match-ups, should the Eagles prove to be less than stellar.

And finally, at Kicker, From Denver, Matt Prater! Kickers are kickers - it's been shown time and again that predicting the best one is like trying to turn lead into gold, and even if you do peg the right man, the difference between number 1 overall and waiver wire replacement level is almost negligible. That said, I like that Prater is kicking at altitude all season, and I like that Peyton Manning runs his offense. That team should score points in bunches.

Draft Day 2012

Ah, Draft Day! In my opinion, the best day of the year. A day of cheap jokes and playful trash talk. A day of unbridled optimism and enthusiasm. A day of parity for all ten franchises in the Draft and Draught League. Before we get to my strategy and results, I present to you:

Highlights of the 2012 Draft and Draught Draft
(directed at a Cowboys fan) "Did you know that Eli Manning has more Super Bowl rings than Tony Romo has playoff wins?"

(after Marshawn Lynch went 8th overall) "First player off the board with pending legal issues!"

(after Chris Johnson went 7th overall) "First player off the board who quit on his team last year!"

(after Jamaal Charles went 12th overall) "First player off the board who is returning from a season ending injury!" Actually, this joke was probably mentioned for the next 30 running backs, which made it less funny once we all had crippled players starting for us.

(after Michael Vick went 39th overall) "First player who is legitimately evil is off the board!" Can't fault the value there, though. It's the classic karmic risk/fantasy football reward dilemma pick. Ben Roethlisberger prompted a similar vein of conversation in the 10th round.


Matt Ryan in the 4th round prompted the always classic, "Nice pick, that's great value in the 7th round! ...oh wait what round is it? Four? Oh."

Other things we learned:

That Arian Foster is a vegan. Technically, I knew this already, but we certainly heard a lot about it from the two vegans present. He went 2nd overall, by the way. To our vegan owner. What a shocker.

That there are not one, not two, not three, but four players named after Roman senators in the top 200 ESPN rankings. They are, in order of appearance on the list, Demaryius Thomas (#63), Denarius Moore (#82), Darrius Heyward-Bey (#112) and Titus Young (#113). Marcus Easley (#289) just missed the cut. This fact is presented to you by my team's front office staff, Vice President of Football Operations Mary. No, really, I have a front office and a vice president.

That twenty players listed on ESPN.com's fantasy page have the last name "Johnson."

That no one in my league trusts Maurice Jones-Drew, an elite running back who currently is holding out for a new contract and isn't playing with his team yet. He dropped from 4th overall in consensus rankings a month ago to the 23rd pick in our draft. Will he be good? We have no idea.

Rich Liberal Trendy Cause Draft Strategy and Results
Vice President of Football Operations Mary and I wanted to avoid risk as much as possible in the early rounds. I obviously hoped that one of the three sure-fire running backs on the board (LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, and Arian Foster) would fall to me, but this was unlikely. I felt a few things were true at this point:

1) There are three elite quarterbacks(Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) and then a significant drop off to the next tier(Matthew Stafford et al.)
2) There is one elite wide receiver(Calvin "Megatron" Johnson) and then the next 20 or so have very similar value. Wide receiver is "deep" this year, because you can wait until later to find roughly equivalent value.
3) There are no identifiably elite running backs after the top 3. It isn't that none of them will be really good, but rather it's that I can't tell you which of them will be good with any certainty.
4) There are two elite tight ends(Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski), then a very good one(Antonio Gates) and then everyone else is about the same - good, but not stellar.

With these thoughts in mind, I decided that I was going to wait a bit to grab my first wide receiver, wait quite awhile to grab my first running back, and make sure I had one each of the elite quarterbacks and tight ends. My thought was that, in the first couple rounds of a draft, I wanted to find ways to gain an edge over my opponents, and leave the guessing at wide receiver and running back to the other teams.

Here is my draft:
1.06 - Drew Brees, QB
2.05 - Rob Gronkowski "The Gronk", TE
3.06 - Hakeem Nicks, WR
4.05 - Ryan Mathews, RB
5.06 - "The Law Firm" BenJarvis Green-Ellis, RB
6.05 - Antonio Brown, WR
7.06 - Shonn Greene, RB
8.05 - Torrey Smith, WR
9.06 - CJ Spiller, RB
10.05 - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR and former Roman Senator
11.06 - DeAngelo Williams, RB
12.05 - Mark Ingram, RB
13.06 - Lance Moore, WR
14.05 - Randall Cobb, WR
15.06 - Eagles D/ST
16.05 - Matt Prater, K

Brees was the quarterback left after Rodgers and Brady went in the top five. I like Jimmy Graham just a touch more than Gronkowski, but picked The Gronk instead because I try to avoid having quarterbacks and receivers/tight ends from the same team.  Soon after the draft, however, I made a rather big-name trade: I sent Brees and The Gronk to the Montclair Mounties for Tom Brady and Jimmy Graham, my preferred QB/TE combo. He seemed happy to have Gronk, and I'm certainly happy to have both.

So my team currently stands as:

QB: Tom Brady
RB1: Ryan Mathews
RB2: The Law Firm
WR1: Hakeem Nicks
WR2: Antonio Brown
Flex: Shonn Greene
TE: Jimmy Graham
D/ST: Eagles
K: Matt Prater.

Bench - WRs Torrey Smith, Darrius "The Senator" Heyward-Bey, Lance Moore, Randall Cobb,
RBs CJ Spiller, DeAngelo Williams, Mark Ingram

I'll introduce the players on The Cause in-depth in a later post, but upon initial review, there are a couple of things I really like about my squad. We succeeded in outstripping pretty much everyone other than the Mounties at quarterback and tight end, and I think mine are slightly better than theirs. My wide receivers are very talented, and I think that my bench wide outs are incredibly strong as well. The running backs are actually not terrible, considering how late I waited to acquire them. Every pick after round 1 at running back was pretty much akin to throwing a dart at a dart board, and I like the darts I chose. That said, running back is the weakest position on my team, and I will spend the rest of the preseason and early weeks at least examining ways to improve there.

Overall, I think the draft went very, very well for the Rich Liberal Trendy Cause. We shall see in the coming weeks, but for now I will participate in America's real favorite pastime - staring at my team page and switching people in and out of flex for the next two weeks. I can't wait for Week One!

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Quarterback Controversy

The following is intended for mature audiences only. It contains depictions of graphic quarterback incompetence(Q.I.), atrocious bad luck(B.L.) and instances of Season Ending Injury(S.E.I). Viewer discretion is advised.

These are the stories of the quarterbacks drafted by the Rich Liberal Trendy Cause franchise. They are uncut and unedited. 

2007 - Vince Young, Drafted 3rd Round

Vince Young was fresh off a Pro Bowl caliber rookie season in 2006. He was the ideal package of speed and finesse, and he had a knack for winning the big game, as evidenced by his collegiate victory over Michigan as the quarterback of the Texas Longhorns.  He was known as an average passer, but where he really shined was as a rushing QB - in 2006 he rushed for 552 yards and 7 touchdowns, which equates to 97.2 fantasy points before even throwing a pass. He had the potential to be a fantasy football juggernaut.

So what happened? Vince Young proceeded to have one of the most atrocious seasons as a starting quarterback in recent memory. His TD/Int ratio, which was a mediocre 12/13 the season before but manageable given his rushing prowess, plummeted to 9/17. His rushing stats dropped as well, and he rarely found the end zone in any capacity. Also, he simply could not hold onto the football, fumbling 10 times.

Final stats: 2546 passing yards, 9 passing TDs, 17 interceptions, 395 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 10 fumbles.

2008 - Tom Brady, Drafted 2nd Round
In 2007, Tom Brady produced arguably the greatest season in NFL history. He set the record for touchdown passes, notching a remarkable 50 scores. He set the record for most TDs to one target, Randy Moss. He threw for an incredible 4802 yards, which was good for 4th all time at the time.
Though I was leery of spending a high draft pick on a quarterback after the Vince Young Debacle, I looked at Tom Brady's remarkable skill and incredible durability; he had never missed a game in his career.

Until 8 minutes into Week One of the 2008 season, when Bernard Pollard fell on his leg and tore every ligament in it. He completed 7 passes in those 8 minutes, and missed the remainder of the 2008 season.

2009 - Donovan McNabb, Drafted 8th Round
Trust the Eagles to produce the one draft-day quarterback I can't really complain about. Fresh off being burned not once, but twice over the past couple seasons by high draft picks used on quarterbacks, I decided to wait and grab a serviceable late round QB.  McNabb missed 2 games, turned in his lowest rushing total in 5 years, and set a personal best in fumbles, with 10. All that said, he didn't lose many of those fumbles, he limited his interceptions to 10, and he was generally very average.

This makes him the best quarterback I've ever drafted as a starter.

2010 - Tony Romo, Drafted 6th Round

Okay, I've got the handle on the QB position by now. Don't spend a high pick, and it won't hurt you. I'll go up a little bit, to the 6th round. Tony Romo, why not? I expect such big things from you that I selected your best wideout, Miles Austin, in the 2nd as well. Just make sure to block for Tony now, Cowboys, even when playing my beloved New York Giants. Wait, Michael Boley, what are you doing? No! THAT'S MY STARTING FANTASY QUARTERBACK!!!

6th game of the season, broken clavicle, out for season. Damn it all.

2011 - Michael Vick, Drafted 1st Round, 10th Overall
If you would like to know how this turned out, I refer you to ESPN.com's fantasy football expert, Matthew Berry. Hell, he had Vick ranked 1st overall.

Who's next? No one knows. All that is certain is that, come September, some poor soul will be the signal caller for the Rich Liberal Trendy Cause. If you are a fan of an NFL franchise, pray that it is not your quarterback.

Friday, August 24, 2012

Draft and Draught Films Presents: 2007

One of the great joys of professional sports is their strong connection with history.  Fans of all ages talk passionately about the 1985 Chicago Bears, the 1927 New York Yankees, the ridiculous 100 point game by Wilt Chamberlain in 1962, and the masterpiece that is Pedro Martinez' 1997 season.  I believe that it is comforting for people to relate to something as dependable and steady as football or baseball; decade after decade, while music and fashion and politics evolve wildly, the distance from the mound to home plate is still 60' 6".

There is something special, as well, in the ability to compare eras so easily and fluidly. Is it accurate to say that Avatar was the greatest movie of all time, because it was the highest grossing movie ever? Such an argument is easily thwarted, and it is hard to quantify theatrical quality.  However, I am perfectly capable of pointing out the best teams in football ever, because we can compare statistics, win/loss, and any number of quantifiable metrics that relate to team dominance in any given year.

With that being said, I want to present the history of the Draft and Draught league, which begins way back in 2007. Like baseball in the 1800s, the game was very different in the past. For one thing, ESPN did not archive our league page, and so our team names, win/loss totals, and even rosters exist now only in our memories. I will try to give as good an account of the season as I can, but I am only as credible in this case as anecdote allows.

2007 was the inaugural season for our league, and it featured a nearly-full complement of rookie owners. Unfortunately, ESPN.com required that leagues have 10 teams, and we only had 8. Geniuses that we were, we invented a goofy, prehistoric "auto-draft" that created two "ringer" teams - teams that would be league controlled but designed to be below average. What would happen if one of the ringer teams won the championship? We tried not to think about it. We knew one very important thing, however - we should draft our teams in person, and we should bring lots of beer to this draft. Hence the name of the league.

The most important thing at the beginning of any fantasy season has nothing to do with strategy: it was time to come up with a team name. For 2007 my franchise was known as The Laserwolves. What does a Laserwolf sound like? I'm glad you asked! I punctuated every message board post with our war cry: "Owwwooooooooooo.........BANG"! It turns out, I don't know how to write out the sound of a laser.

The second most important thing is, of course, draft strategy. I was fortunate enough to draw the number one overall pick, and 2007 was a year where only one player was 1st overall caliber. "With the first pick of the inaugural draft of Draft and Draught, the Laserwolves select LaDainian Tomlinson, Running Back, San Diego!"

After that, I wanted to nail down a superstar at the rest of the skill positions. With my picks at the end of the second round and beginning of the 3rd(we do a snake draft, which means I picked twice in a row, 20th and 21st overall), I chose Indianapolis WR Marvin "My Favorite Martian" Harrison(copyright 2007 Chris Berman), and superstar rushing quarterback Vince Young. If you are a veteran of fantasy football, you are grimacing slightly right now. If you are not, let's just say they weren't QUITE the 20th and 21st best players by 2007's end. Or even close. Whoops.

With my 4th round pick I selected my ace in the hole - San Diego's tight end, Antonio Gates. The Gates of Hell, as I called him, was far and away the best tight end in football for several years, and even today he is a highly rated star. With a stud at four positions, I spent the rest of the draft drafting best available wide receivers and running backs.

The highlight of the season for me was what I consider to be the Greatest Fantasy Trade of All Time.  My buddy Sam had a wide receiver problem - he simply could not find a receiver who could reliable produce fantasy points. I had a similar issue at running back - Tomlinson was great, but the rest of my team was not as solid. So I offered a young, up and coming receiver named Javon Walker for Sam's rookie running back, a guy named Adrian Peterson. At the time, I felt the trade favored me slightly, but helped his team as well since he could afford to trade depth at running back to fill a need at wide receiver. One week after our trade, in the next game played, Javon Walker broke his shoulder. Out for the year. At the same time, Adrian Peterson set the single game rushing record, obliterating the San Diego defense for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns. He's been the best running back in the world ever since. I love this trade.

My team finished 10-3 and I made the playoffs. I won my first round game and faced Queen Sarah's Fairy Realm Funtime in the championship game. My team went cold, however, and hers had a banner day, and I lost. Little did I know that this would be the closest I have ever been to winning the title.


Wednesday, August 22, 2012

A Brief Interlude Regarding the Rules

This will be a quick primer to bring everyone up to speed on what the heck I mean when I say I'm "playing fantasy football." If you have prior experience playing the game, then feel free to skip this one.

So, what exactly is fantasy football? There are a lot of variations and optional rules that different leagues follow, but the core mechanic is the same for all leagues. Over the course of an NFL season, individual players generate individual statistics. The players on offense produce two key ones: yards from scrimmage and touchdowns. Most leagues focus exclusively on these two stats(with a few notable exceptions, which I will get to), and our league follows suit, but any league can expand their stats to include things such as total touches(how many times does a player handle the ball?), total receptions(how many times does a player catch the ball?), and any other stat that is tracked by the league.

Each team owner puts together a list of players from the NFL, and we compare which group of players get the most yards and touchdowns. Each week, we create "starting lineups" from our lists and only points scored by starters count. This way, each team is equal numbers of players from the various positions in football.  Our league's starting lineup is set up as:

QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
WR/RB "Flex"(you can choose either a running back or a wide receiver for this slot)
TE
D/ST(Defense/Special Teams)
Kicker

Defenses are selected as full teams, since individual defensive players can have misleading stats, and the strength of a defense is largely based on its overall success rather than the success of an individual player. For example, Nnamdi Asomugha was widely considered to be the best cornerback in football for several years, but he was so good that he never got any interceptions or tackles, simply because no one ever threw the ball anywhere near him. Meanwhile, Asante Samuel racked up a ton of interceptions, but partly this was because he had a tendency to gamble, and found himself out of position and giving up a big play on several occasions.

To compare across different positions, we convert our stats into a single, simple metric called "fantasy points." Anyone who runs the ball or catches a pass gets 1 point per 10 yards gained. Anyone who runs or receives for a touchdown gets 6 points, just like in real football. Quarterbacks end up with higher stats just because of the nature of the position, so they score a little less - 1 point per 25 yards thrown, and 4 points for a touchdown.  Players lose 2 points for the team for turnovers.  Defenses get a point per sack, 2 points per takeaway, and either gain or lose a certain number of points, depending on how many real-life points are scored against them. Kickers get 1 point for a PAT(Point After Touchdown) but lose 2 if they miss a PAT. They gain 3 for a field goal of 0-39 yards in length, but lose 2 for a miss in that range. They score 4 points for a 40-49 yard field goal, but lose 1 for a miss. They also score 4 for a 50+ yard FG, but there is no penalty for a miss at that long range.

All of the starters' point totals are added up, and then compared to whichever team you play against that week - it is a head-to-head scoring system, so each team generates wins and losses by playing against a single opponent each week.

To pick the team, we do a "snake draft" - we randomly assign an order of picks from 1 to 10, and then reverse the order each round. At the end of the draft, which is 16 rounds, each team will have enough players for a starting lineup, plus 7 players on the "bench" that they can put into their starting lineup if they ever feel that it is more likely for them to score points than their current starters.

To improve our teams over the course of the season, we can turn to the "waiver wire" - the list of all undrafted players. If a person on my team got injured, for example, I could exchange him for a waiver player. We can also trade with the other teams, giving up value at one position to improve at another.

In the end, it's all about value - we want to accumulate the players we think will score the absolute most fantasy points, while minimizing risk of poor performances.  13 weeks into the season, the top 6 teams in order of win/loss enter the playoffs, and we continue with a single elimination tournament through weeks 14-16(there is a bye week for the best two teams).  After 16 weeks, the last team standing is our winner!

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Welcome to Final Fantasy: Football!

Before I go any further, I would like to address a rather interesting and clever suggestion by ESPN.com's Nate Ravitz. Nate, on the Fantasy Focus: Football podcast, pointed out that in order to carve out a reputation as a brilliant predictor of fantasy ability, aspiring fantasy football writers should make an outlandish, unlikely prediction, in the off chance that it may pan out. He suggests, for example, to predict that Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blaine Gabbert will have a shockingly good fantasy season, despite most evidence pointing to the contrary.

I believe that in the 2012 NFL season, Blaine Gabbert will have a shockingly good fantasy year.

Sweet! Either this will not happen(most likely scenario by far, by the way), and it makes no difference because precisely zero people will care, or it WILL happen(incredibly unlikely, but still possible), in which case I can add it to my list of accomplishments as a fantasy football analyst. Genius, Mr. Ravitz. Go Jaguars!

Now, on to the blog. Let me first say that I am not a fantasy "expert" by any rational definition. I don't win 50% of my leagues. I don't participate in a 16 team, dynasty, AFC only, two quarterback, TE flex-eligible, individual defensive player, expert only league. I haven't devised a cunning metric that accurately predicts the best fantasy kicker 78% of the time. In fact, I like to draft Robbie Gould as my kicker because, several years ago, one person in my league decided he had a Jewish grandmother, and it's fun to say "Robbie, get your sweatuh, you'll catch a cold!" in a delightful North Jersey accent as your kicker knocks in a 40 yarder.

I do, however, pour an immense amount of energy, effort, and love into the world of fantasy football. I participate in a single, simple league of close friends and colleagues. We are at times brilliant, at times mind numbingly dumb. We trash talk, we console. We set waiver priorities and stay up until 4 am to see who we get, but sometimes we forget that we have to do that before Tuesday. In short, we are the prototypical Fantasy Football League that millions of Americans can relate to. I fully believe that this league is as exciting as nearly any major sports league, up to and including Major League Baseball. OK, only if you're a Mets fan. Which I am, so my point stands.

Many websites devote their energy into the business of winning fantasy football leagues. This will not be one of them (unless, of course, I actually do win my league. In which case, feel free to emulate my greatness). What this will be, however, is a full accounting of my experience in our league, complete with my personal draft strategy, my roster decision making, everything funny that happens at our draft, any trades I want to make, any trades I DO make, and anything else that is tangentially related to the core topic: what is it that makes fantasy football so much fun?

My league is called Draft and Draught.

My 2012 team is called the Rich Liberal Trendy Cause. It has a lovely logo depicting an anti-fracking symbol over the outline of the state of New Jersey.

For the record, I am against fracking. I identify as a liberal. I am not, by any account, rich. And I find the way rich liberals prioritize their important causes to be amusing. I will not be talking about politics again, but as it is my team's name, I felt I should address it. If you are a rich liberal and are offended, I apologize.

I pick 6th out of 10 teams. I'm crossing my fingers that (Player's Name Withheld) or, oh please sports gods, (Player's Name Withheld) falls to me. After that, it all depends on the most magical day of the year, Draft Day. Wish me luck!